Thanx alot.

Complex view at the market


Dollar index and Gold
The market continues consolidation, taking a direction. Gold at the daily graph forms a triangle and today it has broken a descending side trend at H4, opening a way of growth to 807.00. The growth to 820.00 is also possible, depending on the market situation after reaching the first target. Such picture says in a favour of dollar’s continued dropping.

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9500/goldd1kv4.gif - daily

Dollar index is set on the support expressed in upper bounds of ascending H4 trend and “double bottom” daily shape. Upon breaking the ascending trend’s lower bound index will get ability of dropping at 75.15.

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/155/dxyd1bw1.gif - daily



EURUSD
As supposed, the pair has reached 1.4750 level, which showed a resistance. At the same moment, the pair set against the upper bound of a descending 4-hours trend. Upon breaking it, the pair will get ability of growth to 1.4841, possibly a key level from which forming of the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape may start. The potential of forming such shape is expressed not only with the general picture of the main pairs, but also with the divergence at the daily graph.

http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/6214/eurusdd1ib1.gif - daily



USDCHF
On a 4-hours graph the pair has broken the lower bound of an ascending trend; this has opened a target 1.1020.




USDJPY
I supposed forming the right shoulder of a “head & shoulders” shape on this pair at 109.35 level, this scenario is not cancelled for the time being. If the pair won’t go up from this level, its target will become the support at 108.16.
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/5003/usdjpyh4lg5.gif - H4

Thank you Picaso

Yano

Uncertainty before non-farm payrolls



Dollar index
Index has broken a neck line and the 77.84 level is its target. But since a turned candle “hammer” formed at the EUR/USD daily graph today, tomorrow is the time for very great news concerning employment market and the picture over all main pairs is clear to everyone, movement towards 77.84 is very possible, as well as reverse neck line breaking followed by decrease with 75.14 target.

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/827/dxyd1ys1.gif - D1



GOLD
On a daily graph gold forms a “triangle” shape which may be broken either upwards or downwards (which is more probable). On a 4-hours graph a “head & shoulders” shape is formed. If tomorrow (December, 7) gold will manage to remain below neck line, then it will go down to “triangle” shape’s lower bound (779.38). In the case of its breaking gold will tend to grow to triangle’s higher bound (828.36) but in the path of this growth there will be a resistance at 820.50.
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4953/goldh4ex8.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/580/goldd1mg3.gif - D1



EURUSD
This night EUR/USD sharply broke a neck line (1.4634), after reaching a red ascending daily trend (1.4525) the pair rapidly bumped out of it and went back to a neck line. During this movement a turned candle “hammer” shape was formed. The pair’s situation is uncertain. Logically, after breaking a neck line a good descending trend should start, but forming of a turned candle assumes equal possibilities of going up or down.

Upon neck line bottom-up breaking (1.4643) there are two variants of consequences:
1. the pair may bump off an ascending green daily trend.
2. in the case of breaking of this trend, as well as breaking a descending 4-hours trend, the pair will forward to 1.4840.
In the event that the pair bumps off a neck line (1.4640) it will go towards an ascending red daily trend (1.4550) and on its braking will go at 1.4370. Strategically, if this situation develops, I expect the pair at 1.4200.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/5086/eurusdd1jw9.gif - daily



GBPUSD
The pair broke a neck line (2.0414) of a “head & shoulders” shape, then rapidly dropped down, but a week’s ascending red trend (2.0179) showed a resistance to this movement. Bumping off it can give the pair a chance to bottom-up testing of a neck line (2.0420), but in this case a descending 4-hours trend will most likely be broken and then the pair may rise to 2.0523 and higher. If tomorrow the descending movement will continue and a red trend will be broken, the pair’s target will be 2.0010 level. Strategically, the pair will be forced to drop to 1.9600.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7724/gbpusdd1ki5.gif - daily
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - weekly



USDCHF
The pair broke the higher bound of a descending daily trend (1.1282) and now its target is 1.1680. But since the situation about the rest of pairs is rather uncertain, usd/chf also has possibility to go down ignoring the descending daily trend’s higher bound.
On a 4-hours graph the pair is in a side trend (blue). In the case of breaking of its lower bound (1.1168), the decrease to 1.1020 will occur.

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/228/usdchfd1yz3.gif - daily



USDJPY
As supposed, the pair formed a “head & shoulders” shape, the neck line was broken and now the pair’s target is 113.48. But then again let’s take a look over other main pairs and not to be so sure, that this shape will work properly. If the neck line will be broken top-down (110.85), the pair will have a great chance to drop at 108.23.
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7824/usdjpyh4lx2.gif - H4
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/9892/usdjpyd1by3.gif - daily

Dollar growth is inevitable.



OIL
Dollar growth is inevitable. Primarily, we need to look at the oil graph as it shows more precise and global picture (it’s well-known that upon decrease of oil prices growth, dollar price rises). As the daily graph shows, an ascending daily trend was broken, after what a descending trend started forming. Also an ascending daily trend (blue) was falsely broken and the “diamond” shape at H4 graph had formed, which is already exhausted meaning the oil price growth at H4 comes to an end. If oil will manage to break this blue trend again, it will go down to support 89.50. If oil also overcomes this support, the target becomes 81.43 level.
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/8814/oild1zz3.gif - D1
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/8215/oilh4me2.gif - H4



Dollar index
http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/4509/dxyd1si9.gif - D1
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/5293/dxyh4up3.gif - Н4



EURUSD
The daily graph shows that the pair is closed in the range between red and green ascending daily trends. I expect the red trend breaking and going down to the first target at 1.4371. My strategic target is 1.4200 (going down to the blue ascending trend), but again examining the pair behavior at 1.4371 is necessary.

At H4 graph the pair has a weak resistance at 1.4639 which is likely to collapse, but I’ll try to sell at it. I can’t see more exact resistances above, hence I won’t name the price. The pair trades in a descending trend, which is worth orienting to. Braking of this trend will put in doubt the pair’s willing to go down and in that case it has a good chance to grow to 1.4750. If the red trend (daily) will be repeatedly broken, the pair will head to the blue trend, and upon breaking it – to 1.4371. This course of events is the most probable due to pictures on oil, dollar index, gold and the rest main pairs.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6307/eurh4uk4.gif - H4



GBPUSD
At D1 graph we were having a “head & shoulders” shape which was successfully ignored by the market, because a very strong trend emerged in its way.. The pair bounced off this trend on 390 pips – the red ascending trend from W1 graph. Its breaking opens the way of going down to 1.9855 for the pair

At H4 graph the ascending trend was broken and a slightly deformed “head & shoulders” shape is forming. This shape is formed with a very important rule violation, hence we need to be careful with its neck line braking, it may be false. Now the right shoulder is forming. Its forming can long until 2.0450, where a strong resistance in a form of neck line of the daily “head & shoulders” is situated. Also, the pair may not reach 2.0450, if the lower bound of an ascending trend manages to show a decent resistance. I expect the breaking of neck line, followed by the red trend breaking and I will head to the strategic target at 1.9850.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3429/gbph4xd1.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - W1



USDCHF
At D1 the pair overcome all the resistances and has nothing else to do as go to 1.1679.

At H4 a “bull’s triangle” shape is formed, support at 1.1390.

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/6871/chfh4tp7.gif - H4



GOLD
At D1 a “triangle” shape is formed, with breaking the lower bound of which the gold will go down to 746.00.

At H4 an ascending trend is broken, which opens the sure path of going down to the lower “triangle’s” boundary – 781.50.
Resistance is at 801.26. It may also be the lower bound of the ascending trend from H4 graph.

24.12.07


General view
Main pairs have reached their target levels and now the 4th correction wave (by Elliot) is beginning.
It’s known that the 4th wave is the most complex and it can deliver surprises. This time won’t be exception. I’m being cautious about the fact that gold made a sudden leap towards rising of price while dollar was still – this is a signal of dollar’s drop. Also, swap trade has begun in cross pairs, causing repositioning of traders’ deals. That confirms the movement about gold. Hence, in my opinion, from the current 4th wave we may expect very sudden as well as very slow moves due to absence of powerful news (that are able to give impulse to the market) for over two weeks.



EURUSD
The pair is consolidating in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 1.4525. A neck line of “head & shoulders” shape is at the same level. From 1.4525 I expect the pair to turn with a target of the 5th wave (1.4095). But before this level, at 1.4310, there is a very important trend “G” (upper bound of bull’s triangle), which is able to keep the pair from going down. If it manages to do so, strategically, I expect a serious correction to 1.4670 level (see weekly graph) followed by pair’s lowering to trend “H”, approximately to a level of the 39th shape (1.3900).
If the 4th wave won’t start, the pair will go down to 1.4210.

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9260/eurusdd1mm2.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/6377/eurusdw1zf2.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Buy 1.4424, target 1.4525, stop 1.4384.
Sell 1.4525, target 1.4210, stop 1.4565.



GBPUSD
The reason of stop in pair’s lowering is “G” trend from the weekly graph, and also the ending of the 3rd wave of the daily trend “C-C+”. Although rumor has it that pound is currently the most vulnerable pair, the analysis of the picture about EURGBP clearly negates this rumor.
Now the pair is being traded in a descending “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 2.0222. At the hour’s graph “double bottom” shape is forming based on 1.9892 level. On its breaking, the pair will tend to break the upper bound of “a-a+” trend. The target of the 4th wave is 2.0222 level, but there is a very important trend “E” before it, that is capable of keeping the pair from growing to 2.0222. It’s very probably that the growth will stop at 2.0115 level and the pair will forward to 1.9557 from it. That level is not the target of the 5th wave which is at 1.9229, but is rather a good support.

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/583/gbpusdd1dj4.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/1880/gbpusdw1cd7.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Accumulative positions
1) Buy 1.9910, stop 1.9870, target 2.0115
2) Buy on breaking of the “a-a+” channel’s upper bound, stop 60 points, target 2.0115
From 2.0115 I will consider options to sell.



EURGBP
The pair has reached the target 0.7253 on the monthly “bull’s triangle” shape and now it is most likely to undergo a serious correction. On the weekly graph we see that the pair is in “E-E+” descending trend that should contain 5 ascending waves. On “C-C+” trend breaking the 3rd wave will finish and the 4th correction wave with 0.7062 target will start. The target of the 5th wave will be 0.7390. In favor of “C-C+” trend breaking speaks the side channel from the daily “K-K+” graph, and the “triple vertex” shape which has exhausted its growth potential. Analysis of the 4-hours graph shows that the ascending “a-a+” trend is just about to be broken and the pair will go down to the first support at 0.7172.
Such picture is in favor of deeper correction about GBPUSD pair and starting from it, the pair is quite capable of reaching 2.0222, having not bounced off 2.0115.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/9894/eurgbph4lg2.gif - H4
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/3812/eurgbpd1rg9.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/2982/eurgbpw1az9.gif - weekly
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/3304/eurgbpmnqm9.gif - MN

Trading recommendations:
Sell 0.7223, intermediate target 0.7172, stop 0.7248.



USDCHF
The pair consolidates in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with a target at 1.1432 – 1.1372. The target of the 5th wave is 1.1862.

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/7411/usdchfd1sb0.gif - D1
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/6453/usdchfw1cz8.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Sell 1.1485, target 1.1400, stop 1.1525
I will consider buying later from 1.1372.



USDJPY
Contrary to main dollar pairs, I see JPY reducing versus dollar. Possibly, this is caused by a swap trade mentioned earlier in the general view at the market, but technically such picture is being drawn unambiguously.
The pair has broken the descending weekly “E-E+” trend, breaking of which gives the target of growth at 116.05 and, strategic, at 120.55 (possibly unreal). If pair manages to break the “F” trend, the growth will continue to 116.05, wherefrom the correction to 113.95 is possible in future. Breaking of the side “a-a+” trend amplifies the potential of breaking the “F” trend and gives the pair an ascending impulse.

ImageShack - Hosting :: usdjpyd1pz9.gif - D1



Dollar index
The picture I see about it is not as clear as about the pairs listed above, but still I see something.
Index is set against the weekly “E” trend, which shows a resistance. On breaking of the side “a-a+” trend the ascending impulse will fade out and the index will go down to 76.32 or bounce off the “C” trend.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/233/dxyh4wq1.gif - H4
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/3372/dxyd1fd4.gif -D1



GOLD
On the daily graph gold is in “triangle” shape (“E-E+”), and in that triangle there is a 4-hour triangle (“C-C+”) which had been broken last week. Its breaking opens to gold an opportunity of growth to target level of 814.47, from which (with “a-a+” trend breaking) I expect a drop to the daily triangle’s lower bound, “E” trend (785.50).
http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/6812/goldgp3.gif - H4-D1



Oil
In my previous forecast I wrote that the growth from 89.30 level is possible, and so it happened. Now I expect oil at 96.099. Approximately from this level (with breaking of the ascending “a-a+” trend) the descending trend with target at 81.43 should start.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/251/oilh4im4.gif - H4
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/4888/oild1kk9.gif - D1

07.01.08


EURUSD


http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/1139/eurusdd1qj0.gif - D1




GBPUSD

http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/4737/gbpusdd1cv9.gif - D1




USDCHF


http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/8306/usdchfd1vj0.gif - D1




USDJPY


http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/3020/usdjpyd1dn7.gif - D1




GOLD


http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/6250/goldd1po1.gif - D1




Light sweet crude oil

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/6033/oilh4os8.gif - H4
http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9426/oild1if0.gif - D1

GOLD


http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/6250/goldd1po1.gif - D1






for gold above ...it will going to 821 if break 853 right ?
I think not break 853 ...now 861
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Forex Indicators Collection

you win some and you lose some ... it happens
the gold next TG is 900

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