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I read the article in the Financial Times about «oil crunch»:
«The world is facing an oil supply “crunch” within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog has warned.
In its starkest warning yet on the world’s fuel outlook, the International Energy Agency said “oil looks extremely tight in five years time” and there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”.
The IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report came as oil is approaching last year’s record high. Brent crude oil on Monday rose 72 cents to a 11-month high of $76.34 a barrel.
Refineries are already paying record high prices as producing countries have cut the discount at which they sell their oil relative to Brent, according to an analysis by the FT. Most of the discounts had been reduced to levels not seen since 2004 and some even to six-years lows.
Oil demand will grow at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent during the next five years, up from a previous estimate of 2 per cent, to reach 95.8m barrels a day in 2012. China, the Middle East and other emerging countries will lead the increase.
The IEA estimates Opec would have to supply about 36.2m b/d in 2012, up from today’s 31.3m b/d. That would reduce the oil cartel’s spare capacity to a “minimal level” of 1.6 per cent of global demand, down from 2.9 per cent in 2007».
I wouldent expect OpEC to ever give a positive long term outlook on the price of oil. Think about if you held the key to the worlds most inelastic good what would be the best way to continue to raise the price.... you control supply. All you have to do now is justify why supplys are tight. Dont put too much weight to dismal supply reports given by people that have Billions to gain from it.
At the end of the day we have enough oil to last over 120 years at our current growth rate. and we havent even tapped the world output potential.
IMO oil gas are still very low, 1 gallon of gas still costs less than a 1 gallon of milk, and the process of obtaining that gas ( R&D,Drilling,Shipping,Refining,Distribution) is much more complex and costly than that of milk.
Would you really stop driving tomorrow if gas shot to 10$ a gallon ? mabye if you worked for min wage, but then the employers would have to start paying more to get employees to come to work. and there you have trickle down economics at play.
The big threat to oil companies is techonology. Techonology is advancing at a much faster rate than oil supply is diminishing. The most advanced cars now only use gas at 25% of its potential and thats with the help of electricity. this is what will eventually set the cap on oil prices.
Actually, I am getting kinda bored with all the warnings and pointings at the Hubbard`s curve and all.... I mean, what the heck, suddenly uranium will go up, next solar panels and all the hi-tech stuff...
I read the article in the Financial Times about «oil crunch»:
«The world is facing an oil supply “crunch” within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog has warned.
In its starkest warning yet on the world’s fuel outlook, the International Energy Agency said “oil looks extremely tight in five years time” and there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”.
The IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report came as oil is approaching last year’s record high. Brent crude oil on Monday rose 72 cents to a 11-month high of $76.34 a barrel.
Refineries are already paying record high prices as producing countries have cut the discount at which they sell their oil relative to Brent, according to an analysis by the FT. Most of the discounts had been reduced to levels not seen since 2004 and some even to six-years lows.
Oil demand will grow at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent during the next five years, up from a previous estimate of 2 per cent, to reach 95.8m barrels a day in 2012. China, the Middle East and other emerging countries will lead the increase.
The IEA estimates Opec would have to supply about 36.2m b/d in 2012, up from today’s 31.3m b/d. That would reduce the oil cartel’s spare capacity to a “minimal level” of 1.6 per cent of global demand, down from 2.9 per cent in 2007».
What will happen if it comes?
Petro Currency (GBP) will going higher and higher from now on
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