Let me tell ya something, guys...
1. ANN's don't work, they are no magic solution to to the 'almost' efficient markets. I have experimented with these a lot and I have almost abandoned them as a sole decisioning algorithm. They can still be used for subproblems though .
2. No matter what algorithm you use, your success will be driven by your predictor variables. The improvement of your results that can be attributed to the statistical/machine learning framework will be marginal, well, in most cases one will try a few different approaches and choose the best...
3. A successful system will require many steps- let's say we may use spectral analysis to detect cycles, wavelets to detect short term trends, other statistical measures as inputs to a NN...
4. In the end, in my opinion... we CANNOT predict shiat 90% of the time, we can only hope to be mostly correct in the remaining 10% when we dare to trade.

Cheers!

I have just found this forum and think that perhaps I can add some of my own experiences to this.
I have been walking the NN (and wavelets) path some 7 years now - only the last 2 and a half years have I managed to actually make some profits.
For me, NN's are good (wavelets a tool without which nobody can make a success) - and then, the market will change pace.
When historical data is used for training (your NN), there must be an assumption that in future the market will behave in the same way - this is not the case because, we have short term and long term behavior patterns.
By it's very nature, NN's will tend to train more on short term patterns - they occur much more frequently.
As such, in some way, my problems may be the opposite to most other traders - during periods of consolidation, my system will select turning points with a high degree of accuracy and, as a result my account will rocket up.
During trends, the system will attempt to continue with the pattern - indeed, the market will continue in the direction of the trend.
As a result, my account will grind to a halt.
Talking about the EUR, last year, I made exceptional profits - then, from Aug-Sep the market started trending (to the 1.36 mark) and the system would have emptied my account within about 3 months - as it is, I took a 23% dragdown during this period (before turning off...)
This is exceptionally hard - most traders are dancing on the tables, making good profits while the trend is going...
However - in between (the trends) there still may be months (even years) during which a proper NN system may yield exceptional profits - in March, I made up my dragdown within 2 weeks and since then, trading has been reasonably good...

does anyone know of such methods on forex. such as statistical arbitrage between two pairs. such as usdjpy eurjpy. or any pairs that are closely correlated, if there are deviations, we can maybe exploit this.

for instance, you will see a deviations for two pairs closely correlated, you would buy and sell accordingly, waiting for the prices to converge relatively.

i want to ask who wrote this, how can you tell us the optimal ARCHITECTURE!!!! do you really read about ann....if you do that find there is no way to find best ARCHITECTURE.... it is practical and depend on you variable ......study more and do not think about this ways....ann is more difiicalt than you think .....

Just found this via one other site. There has been so much talk about NN in the last few months that I thought this might be interesting read for many

Neural networks in plain English

enjoy!

Hi I know this has nothing to do with the forex market. Is it possible to use neural networks on table roulette. We all know the RNG is not so random as it still needs a formula to compute numbers. If possible could you train a network to predict black/red on bettings jus a question if anyone can help

Shouldn't you be asking this question on a gambling forum?

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not really no as I know there are people on here with knowledge on neural networks. Just wondering weather it could be done or not

To predict well the Roulette table what people have done to give an edge is to mark the ball as it goes...and again when it goes again...
Now we have the "trajectory" of the ball.

Then we watch the green 0 or double 0.
Mark it and mark it again.

The marking is often done by tapping your foot to trigger a switch or a trigger in a pocket. With electronics advancing there are likely new variations being developed.

The raw values are computed in some kind of strap on computer.
And the number of highest probabillity is given....
quick place the bet.

You won't be able to win at will...you can only get a slight advantage.
You need to overcome the factor of the 0 and 00 that skew the odds to the casino just a bit.

Downside is that this is cheating and you can get in trouble with some guys that like to let you know they don't like your style.

Alternatively, people have watched the tables and noted the numbers that come up.

For a Neural Network you need a lot of data.
In a casino you can stay all day and all night but you likely will not have enough data to make an advantage.

Should you start winning they will take an interest in you and any partners you may have had during the data retrival stage.

Really, Forex is a better deal.

Still I am intrigued by the ways people go after an edge.

You will still have to work with good money management as your win rate will still be low.....you will just be a bit better off.

Sorry for confusion I'm mean online roulette where the numbers are created by a RNG. I'm using a program called money maker machine very clever in its use. But occansionally you get a draw down where you can only choose red/black as this is how the program works. When it gets to the 8th position it asks you to choose which colour and shows you a pallete of all the previous colours prior 8th positon just wondering weather you could use a neural net to guess the colour to choose. I know it sounds complecated in reading but it is simple when you watch a video on how it works

Sorrry admin if not allowed to say software name.