How to Analys the Chart with Statistic Method ?

ServerUang · #1 (**permalink**) 04-28-2008, 09:23 PM

I want to learn how to analisys the chart with Statistic Method.
Anybody knows ?

prasxz · #2 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ServerUang

I want to learn how to analisys the chart with Statistic Method.
Anybody knows ?

all indicators made based on statistic methode ...but if u want to try with old statistic like profit or loss probabilites with time series , u can try to export data into spreadsheet and do your math

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Linuxser · #3 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ServerUang

I want to learn how to analisys the chart with Statistic Method.
Anybody knows ?

Statistic method it´s more related to price analysis than chart analysis.

Example:

Quote:

Currency pair Symbol Percent of daily volume
Euro/U.S. dollar EUR/USD 28%
U.S. dollar/Japanese yen USD/JPY 17%
British pound/U.S. dollar GBP/USD 14%
Australian dollar/U.S. dollar AUD/USD 5%
U.S. dollar/Swiss franc USD/CHF 4%
U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar USD/CAD 4%

Another quote from a popular magazine:

Quote:

Figure 3 is a frequency distribution that shows how often
daily ranges of different sizes occurred. The vertical axis
shows the number of occurrences. The horizontal axis
shows the different daily ranges. For example, “0.0050”
shows the number of daily ranges that are greater than
0.0040 up to and including 0.0050; in this case, there were
13 occurrences. There was only one day with a range above
0.0020 up to and including 0.0030. (This happened to be
April 14, 2006, which had a range of 0.0026 points.)
The most occurrences (33) fell in the 0.0070 category. The
daily range was larger than 0.0110 points only 33 percent of
the time, which means if the daily range has already
exceeded 0.0110 points, the probability the market will
extend its range are quickly diminishing.
Although the average daily range was 0.0099 points, the
average close-to-close change (up or down) was only 0.0050
points. If the market closed up, which occurred 125 times
during the review period, the average close-to-close gain
was 0.0055 points. If the market closed down, which
occurred 133 times, the average close-to-close loss was
0.0049 points. (The market closed unchanged only twice
during the review period.) Figure 4 shows the frequency
distribution for close-to-close differences. The absolute
value was used for negative closes.

Quote:

Currency characteristics: Euro
Some insights from analyzing the euro from Sept. 1, 2005
to Aug. 31, 2006:
1. The euro’s average daily range was 0.0099, and the
range exceeded 0.0110 only 33 percent of the time.
The range was most often between 0.0060 and
0.0070.
2. The close-to-close change exceeded 0.0080 only 18
percent of the time.
3. Once the euro has traded more than 0.0050 points
below yesterday’s close, there is only a 4-percent
chance it will recover to close higher on the day.
4. Once the euro is up more than 0.0045 points from
yesterday’s close, the odds are less than 10 percent
that it will close lower on the day.
5. The most volatile 60-minute bars were the 07:00
(CT) hour (0.0026-point median range) and the
09:00 hour (23-point median range).

kang_gun · #4 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ServerUang

I want to learn how to analisys the chart with Statistic Method.
Anybody knows ?

If you are Indonesian or Malaysian you can go this thread Belajar Menganalisa Chart ala KG - Forexindo Forum

I'm still not finish with the concept.. but i will translate all that in english soon.. and post in this forum... maybe a few member here will help to translate it...

KG

ServerUang · #5 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:31 AM

Thank you Linuxer for the information. Very helpfull.
Any source that I can learn it more, Linuxer ?

Thank you kang_gun for the link, I will learn it.

ServerUang · #6 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 06:54 AM

Quote:

prasxz:
all indicators made based on statistic methode

Very interesting prasxz, many indicators here. What indicators ?
And how to set the parameters corectly ?

I only know MA, BB, SD that conjunction with Statistic Method. But I don't know how to use and interpret it.
For example : is it the same interpret if I set MA with period 20 on TF H1 and TF D1 ? and so on.

Can you explain it to me or us here ?

Linuxser · #7 (**permalink**) 04-29-2008, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ServerUang

Thank you Linuxer for the information. Very helpfull.
Any source that I can learn it more, Linuxer ?

Thank you kang_gun for the link, I will learn it.

Hello, some magazines have monthly statistics reports. Some websites. I don't have any link but you can subscribe to currency trader which is free. It comes from time to time with stats.

But your best friend will be the spreadsheet (Excel, OOC) and make one according to your needs. MT4 lacks with features to make statistics as wealth lab have. Example, you want to report how many pips average have EUR during American Session only.

Example: making statistics you could say every time the EUR moves 60 pips from the open it never comes back 90% of the time.

Then you have MM statistics. Could be done about money, return, risk.

These are some old xls from a popular method two years ago so you can start to play.

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