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Old 03-05-2007, 02:15 PM
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jlpi jlpi is offline
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Why people are still trying Martingale Systems?

Here are some of my thoughts about Martingale Systems and I would be more than happy to be proven wrong
And for the Martingale Systems Expert please don't take it personaly, it is just the opinion of a Trend Follower...

I am always very surprised that there is so much energy spend in Martingale Systems that in my opinion will never work. The reasons why they will never work are the following:

1) on the theoretical point of view a martingale system applied on financial instruments is already not working (see van Tharp book for instance about that). What is recommended is anti-martingale. So, why to start anyway with a system that has strong theoretical weaknesses.

2) in case 1) is wrong...
We have in this forum many Martingale systems with a lot of different variations (hedge, fibo...) for some of them. Many talented people have been working a long time on these EAs but still every time there is a strong trend the accounts are wipped out. If it should work wouldn't we have got some better results already?

3) in case 1) and 2) are wrong and that you succeded to get the perfect Martingale EA.
Even if you get a perfect Martingale system, no broker will let you run it live like that. Very quickly they will figure out what is happening on your account considering the frequence of trades and the profits and you can be sure that at best your account will be closed because you are scalping or you have some "unethical behaviour" (they like this expression I think).
So why work so much to get something that nobody will allow you to trade?

In my opinion such an amount of energy would be better directed to "Trend Following" techniques even if they are less "sexy" and is less a get quick riches scheme.
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