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Originally Posted by --Id--
Sorry to keep this, John, but cannot avoid questioning the fundamental diferences between forward and berckward testing, for the news. Anyone can clarify that? As there are a significative amount of work towards news, it is important to know the exact flaws of testing.
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A few simple idea to make you understand is, if you're in the progression of 5th, current lot size is short 1.6lots, account balance is 5k floating p/l is -3k, NFP came in, move down 160pips... guess what...... BOMB!!!!
Another 1 is, you're down long 1.6lots, account balance is 5k floating p/l -3k, NFP came in, move up 160pips, congratulations! Profit! Account 10% up, what's next? Continue long, keep going and going. Take a look at what happened to 8th December, 2006 NFP.... guess what..... BOMB!!!!
Another 1, you're in good hand, only 1 position in hand with short 0.1 lots. NFP came in, stack up 160pips, with pip step 15....guess what....BOMB!!!!
Just 1 more, you're in good hand, only have 1 position in hand with long 0.1lots. NFP came in, profit all the way up 160pips, great, account up by 6%. Congratulations.... AGAIN! after 2 hour, you're now in good hand long 0.1 still in profit. Bernanke decided to clear throat and reannounce NFP corrections, GBPUSD plunged by 220pips in 1 hour.....guess what....BOMB!!!!
Please refer the above scenario with the chart on 8th December, 2006 NFP day. I can assure you pipstep 15 aint work on that day!!! That is the purpose of forward testing...understand?LOL