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Old 12-14-2006, 08:36 AM
permanentjaun permanentjaun is offline
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I’ve been doing some more thinking. What if we did the following. Enter a trade on every tick.

We have a TP/SL of 30/30. Price is at 1.9000 and we enter our first trade as long. Price goes to 1.9029. We now have 29 open orders for long. The beginning, I think, is the most risky. We’re betting in the beginning that our initial entry isn’t going to be near a maximum peak.

Anyways, price continues to 1.9050. So the last winning trade possible would be entered at 1.9020. The losers would be from 1.9021-1.9050. This is what is hard to tell what to do. Something going through my head right now is what happens if we don’t open any new positions in the opposite direction until all trades currently open close in a loss? This is bad obviously because we’ve just lost a lot of pips. Think about it though, for all of those orders to close, price would need to retrace to 1.8991. That’s a 60 pip retrace, which is somewhat significant on an intraday chart. What happens next? We enter a sell order at 1.8991.

If the market turns on us again to enter a range of 60 pips or so what happens? Well if it retraced to 1.8985 then we would have only opened 6 new sell positions from 1.8985-1.8991. It then retraces and stops out all of those orders. We then enter long at 1.9021 and it goes to 1.9050 again. There is another 29 positions opened that will lose.

The point of this idea is that it cuts down on making a lot of trades in a ranging market that doesn’t allow for profit. Would the losses here be overcome if we could capitalize on the trends at every single pip for hundreds of positions on an up or downtrend? This strategy would work best by imploring the smallest TP/SL possible so that on reversals we enter less losing trades at the end. It also takes less movement to enter a reverse position to get back on the winning side.

I don’t think this could work all that effectively since we’d be waiting to enter a reverse position for quite some time. We’d be sacrificing the opportunity of trading those pips and losing tremendously when we don't close out all the trades when the first one hits SL. Also, if we made the SL/TP small then it would be impossible to make it 50/50 inherently. If spread is 3 then we would need a TP of 6 and SL of 9 just to profit 3 pips a trade and place our entry equidistant from TP and SL. Unfortunately this means our losses are 50% larger than our wins. It affects our profit outcomes greatly. This strategy is different from what my original post was calling for. I’m just throwing this out there to hopefully spark something in the rest of you. Get you all thinking about ways to trade this to make it profitable. How can we play simple price action successfully without hedging?
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