4 Dec - 8 Dec

USD/JPY couple course decline continued last week. Yen to dollar rising is not as fast as euro currencies, but medium dollar decline is going on anyway. Last week the 115.00 level was tested and price drop below (one of the last review’s scripts). It can be training for the next course decline within the next few days and fixing below. A technical picture says about high probability of the further couple course decline to the 113.00-114.00 region.

This week the following USD/JPY couple range variations are possible:

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 115.00 - 116.60 area. After inert week for yen side exchange fluctuations within the 115.00-116.60 region are expected. Especially liable will be couple rising to 116.60 in the case of euro currencies correction beginning. The breakdown of these levels will lead to the next two scripts development.

Script 2 (40%): The downward trend to the 113.40-114.00 region. The course decline can continue in case of fixing below 115.00. In that case the nearest target of the 113.40-114.00 region will easily be reached during the week. After that the correcting rebound can occur.

Script 3 (20%): The upward trend above 116.60. It is not improbable that the couple will rise above the 116.60 level to the 117.40 area. The reason is a course technical need to test a broken neck line below (117.00/40 region).

Resistance
116.00 - 116.60 the nearest resistance region – broken support
117.40 the neck line region of “head and shoulders” figure
117.80 the long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance

Support
115.00 the last week reached supports
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimum
109.00 May yearly minimum as a long-range target of the current decline