Quote:
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Originally Posted by qldmatt
statistics: From 01/01/2005 to today 03/10/2006, 455 trading days:
Average Daily High - Daily Low:
EURUSD : 104 pips
Case 1, 216 trading days over 100 pips: 47.5%
Case 2, 94 trading days between 80 to 100 pips: 20.66%
Case 3, 107 trading days between 60 to 80 pips: 23.52%
Case 4, 42 trading days less than 60 pips: 9.23%
You could get about 80% of win on Case 1, 70% of win on Case 2, 55% of win on Case 3, 10% of win on Case 4. So total win odds is arround: 66%
Pretty good  , I think just use simple method 1, don't need setup reverse order after. just take 30 pips of 66% trading days, and stoploos 50 pips of 33% trading days is good enough. That is a possibility to generate about 1000 pips per year per currency pair. And another beauty of this statistics is there is only once happened continuous 4 days less than 80 pips for last 2 years. That means we can use MM and odds to take more profit. for example double order lots after 3 continuous days less 80 pips.
Simple logic can make more money 
I will make one EA to test this stratage. |
Hi qldmatt,
Thank you for your posting.
But I looked over it with my friend Pipeline and we don't understand what you mean by it or how did you get those numbers. Was it true some testing?...
And you say "no reverse"... fact is that you don't know after a few hours after the break out of the first 1/2 of the dayrange that price will continue that direction. It happens a lot that after the first break out price reverses and places the other 1/2 of the day range at the other side of the first 1/2.
To explain with an example : daily range = 100 So 1/2 of that = 50.
Price takes of at 1.1100. It goes to 1.1150 there you have your long entry. Price goes further up but on 1.1160 it reverses. Then comes back down and desides that the other 40 pips (average potential to put it under the 1.1100. So at the end ot the day you would see in AVERAGE that price COULD end at 1.1060. So if one does not reverse you have your stoploss hit. If one takes reverse trades you will take 40 pips loss ( 1.1160 - 50 = 1.1110 --entry @ 1.1150 = 40pips) there you reverse and you end up at 1.1060 wich is a total of 100 pips average day range and would give you 50 pips profit on your reverse. Total + 10 pips profit instead of 50 pips loss.
And as I say these reversals happens a lot because after moving the first half of the potential average daily range it is not shure were the next half will be placed (under or above the first half). Aspecialy when the 1 st half is made around the opening price ex. opening price 1.1100 and price made a low at 1.1075 and a high at 1.1125
So the reverse orders are an essential part for the succes of this system.
regards..iGoR
PS. If you build an EA for this system, it would be nice to first make the rules as how I explained and then take it further from there as the way you see it... TNX a lot in advance...