Daily Commentary for September 25th, 2006

Economic Data For Week Ahead To Shape Dollar & Is Bin Laden Dead?

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

Unconfirmed reports out of France say that Al Qaeda mastermind Osama Bin Laden died of typhoid in Pakistan in late August. Of course this news was reported as a result of a news leak from a “normally reliable source,” so let’s approach this news with a grain of salt. I always find it amazing that “reliable sources” are usually quite the opposite.

The week ahead brings the following key economic data for the US: Monday: Existing Home Sales, Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Wednesday: New Home Sales. Traders believe this data will prove to be positive for the Buck, and should bring a halt to the recent Dollar slide. Have a great week everyone, and please contact us with any questions.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
As noted on Thursday evening, our strategies are exhibiting a net Euro long bias, but we are still skeptical until this pair bases above the .2800 level for any significant amount of time. The Euro touched .2820 briefly during Friday’s trading. The German CPI report later this week will be worth taking note of. Please contact us tomorrow for any changes in our Euro biases. .2750-.2820 is the current range.

Usd/Jpy
This pair did indeed consolidate around the 116 area as we suggested it might on Thursday. The Dollar actually strengthened a bit against the Yen and is currently settled around 116.50. Look for Japanese economic data this week including inflation, retail sales, and the labor market. Taking into account that recent Japanese data has been weak, any positive reports should have an enhanced effect on the recent Yen strength. 116-116.50 is the near-term range.

Usd/Chf
Thank heavens our Swiss Franc strategies didn’t follow our .2400 support level call on Friday, as they have a rather nice unrealized profit going on their Dollar short positions. It was surprising to see how quickly the support level was breached. Market action during the first part of this week will be the tell as to whether this Swiss strength is sustainable. Dare we call .2300 as support? Refer to our “falling knives comments,” from previous commentaries.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/24, 7:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

Our biases have remained the same since Thursday evening. There was not much in terms of executions during Friday’s trading day. Our strategies enter the week with a slight Dollar short bias. Participation is still around 50%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com