Thread: ASCTrend system
View Single Post
  #547 (permalink)  
Old 08-24-2006, 09:36 PM
cubesteak's Avatar
cubesteak cubesteak is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Southern California
Posts: 163
cubesteak is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipsnaper
Yes the 5M ASCTrend system is a very good start and can grab some nice run of pips, however as in any system it could be improved using additional filter combinations. I've attached 2 charts to show what kind of problems the system has in would appreciate any input and suggestions for improvement
Hey pipsnaper!

I agree the 5M system is great, but as with any set of indicators, it isn't 100% accurate. Since you asked for input and suggestions, the best I can do is give you my personal observations.

ASCTrend is meant to pick up a trend in process, so it is always going to be a bit "late". At times when it looks "spot on", it is usually because of a large breakout candle (which itself can "count" as a "trend" depending upon its size and the "risk" setting of ASCTrend).

Speaking of the risk setting, if you aren't happy with where the signals are given, play with it a bit. A lower risk setting means more arrows, higher means less, etc. But I think ND's settings are good for this TF.

I have found that along with good confirming indicators (as there are with this system) - another very important piece of this is smart money management. A lot of times when the indicators "fail", smart MM takes up the slack. Very often the ASCTrend will give good entry signal, and other indicators lag a bit more when signaling exit. If you set realistic SL and change it as you make more pips, you won't be hurt as much by lagging indicators for exit.

On most of the arrows that you indicated were "wrong direction" - in fact, they did move the right way, but then reversed. Your MM should at least let you break even at that point, if not get a pip or 2. Like in your second picture, #6. It looks like it went from 815 to 805 before reversing. (hard to tell the full spread without the candles). With M5 TF on EURUSD, I personally would be setting SL to break even (BE) + (1/2 of slippage) after I am 10 pips in profit. As the trade gets more profitable, I set the SL for some take profit room. That allows me to take the bigger gains, and protect myself from anything but the complete wrong signal triggering my initial SL. And, I've found that if ASCTrend DOES give a COMPLETELY wrong signal, it almost certainly because it is about to give a completely RIGHT signal for a big breakout.

You've got to set your MM strategy based upon the indicators you've chosen to use and the results you are willing to put up with for the TF and pair you are trading on. The indicators just need to be consistent, and that is the one thing that I love about ASCTrend. It almost ALWAYS goes in the direction it says it will for SOME period of time. To me, MM makes up the difference.

Look for example at your #3 signal entry and #4 profit run. That profit run looks like it is more than 15 pips - probably more possible with candle highs. Using the MM I mentioned above, you would have been break even after 10 pips, and locked in anywhere from 5 to 10 additional pips on the reverse.

Also, no system will get ALL the pips. If you again look at your #6 arrow on the second picture. Say that was a complete BE. You most likely would have taken a long on the next Blue arrow. We left a lot of pips on the table between the reverse from #6 to the blue arrow, but that's OK. Again, using good MM, that blue arrow should have locked you in a good 5 or 10 pips. Just in time to set you up to take the next pink arrow for yet another 10 pips at the very least. That pink arrow is a bit dicey on the initial upswing, but a good initial SL should have just barely kept you from stopping out. I won't suggest a SL value, as that's really dependent upon your level of risk aversion and the pair and TF. Also, it effects the levels of TP you end up setting, as most people say a 1.5 x SL for TP is good MM, but with ASCTrend, I think you can get bit more "loose' than that... Again, a personal thing...

Anyway - so, given what I've said we have:

arrow 3: say 5 pips conservatively, 10 pips possible
arrow 6: say BE conserv, 2 pips possible
next blue arrow: say 5 pips conserv, 10 pips possible
pink arrow: 10 pips conserv, 15+ pips possible

That's somewhere between 20 pips conservatively and 37 pips more realistically that can be won using this system. Not bad for a single day on 1 pair using 5M TF! The best thing is that the pips are consistent.

The best thing that I've seen is to really KNOW your TF and currency pair so that you can choose an effective MM strategy with the indicators you've chosen to use.

Anyway, this is just my experience and thoughts - I'm sure there are better traders than me who could give better ideas

All the best,
cubesteak
Reply With Quote