Early Technical Analysis for Monday July 31 2006

Full report with charts on Forexalt.com


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Early Technical Analysis: Yen is the Leader of growth in Asia

The catalyst of movements during the Asian tenders on Monday is the Japanese yen. The American hedge funds down to the present moment are its most active buyers. Last week the Japanese currency appeared is strongly resold. Now hedge's decrease level risks of the portfolios. And buy yen practically on all spectrum of the market. Not only against US dollar, but also against euro, the British pound sterling, the Australian dollar, etc. The Basic support for purchases of yen is rendered with positive expectations of revaluation of the Chinese yuan shortly time.
At the same time, the market at the moment estimates probability of increase of a discount rate in August of all in 25 %. Two more weeks back such probability, in opinion of traders, made more than 50 %. Probably, can change a situation the Payroll data which is planned to this Friday.

EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657), 1.2560/55 (50.0% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2560 and 23.6% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2555)

GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8665/72 (61.8% retracement from 1.9023 to 1.8089 at 1.8665 and Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8500 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel), 1.8445 (the bottom line of the “lime-green” channel)

CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2439/23 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006), 1.2585/93 (50.0% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2585 and Wednesday high 07.19.2006 at 1.2593)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)

JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.75/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.76 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)