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Originally Posted by keris2112
The idea that this thread has been created as "the best forex SYSTEM" is worthless. There is no "SYSTEM" posted anywhere on this thread.
Having said that, that doesn't mean that there is no value in this thread.
What I believe is trying to be said, and it's something I've mentioned many times in my posts, is that to be successful, you need to be a TRADER, not an indicator FOLLOWER.
You're not going to find a super combination of indicators that you can follow mechanically on short-term trades. And, if they do exist, they won't be found using MT, because you just can't get accurate backtests with it. Thus, you have to rely on the slow process of forward testing.
Dr4x posted about how he uses MA crosses to generate Setups, not entry signals. I refer to them as Setups, because in other posts he alludes to not neccessarily taking every cross. Thus, they're setups, not entry signals.
He then tells you to use that last swing high/low as the stoploss. This is great. Everybody seems to want to use a fix-pip stoploss. This makes no sense at all because it's just arbitrarily chosen. Using the swing highs/lows, you're taking into account market activity and S/R.
Last, he says to exit at the first sign of reversal. This is good and bad. Good in that it implies discretion, not some magical indicator that doesn't work. The bad thing is that, for trying to post a "system", it's like, "no shit!". Just about Every "system" posted on this forum, or any other forum for that matter, will generate good entry setups/signals. It's consistently exiting the damn trades profitably that is the hard part.
So, for all my rambling, I think what I'm trying to say is: - Whatever method you use to generate entry signals, continue using it, but instead of mechanically using them as entry signals, look at them as trading setups. A potentially good trade is presenting itself. Now, look and see what price and the market are actually doing. Check S/R, pivots, price activity and price patterns, etc. If your entry signal, based on lagging indicators, says go long, but the market is already turning down, don't mechanically take the trade. Use your head.
- Base your stoploss on recent swings high/low (as stated by Dr4x). Have a reason for a stoploss value, not just some abitrary pip value. By the way, this should be calculated Before you take your trade, not after.
- Based on your examination of the current market, determine a profit target. You may not be right, but you should at least have an idea of what you expect/want the market to do before entering a trade. Once you have your expected target, compare that to your stoploss value and determine your risk/reward value. If the value is acceptable to you, then, and only then, should you take the trade.
- Exits: There is no magical exit. If you wait for an indicator to signal an exit, sometimes it will be great, and other times it will have given all your profits, and them some, back. Use indicators for exits in the same manner as for entry setups.... Let them guide/help you, but don't follow them mechanically.
Summary: Becoming a successful TRADER involves discretion. There's no getting around that.
This is all just my opinion, but maybe somebody will take something from it.
Keris
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After 4 years (and lots of $$), I wholeheartedly agree Kerris.
It wasn't until I started
NOTATING my EUR/USD charts in
REAL TIME (using MT4 text) as the day progressed, that I
SAW setups and not entry signals. A very important point!
What you end up with is your own "system" of pattern recognition. The entries come from THE
SETUPTHAT CONTINUES TO CONFIRM ITSELF through price behavior ......and there is
NO LAG with price behavior.....it IS what it IS.
Your entry (like he says) is discretionary....different setups (patterns) at critical points (session times!) in the day have
more likely probabilities (or less likely) probabilites of occuring. That just takes experience to know whether to jump in or wait longer for
more confirmation of pattern development.
Anyway, don't mean to ramble, but to sum up:
1. I agree with the above quote.
2. Start notating your charts.
Good Trading to all.....and NEVER give up!
Goldenequity