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Originally Posted by Morpheus
Here is what i'm talking about. I guess it really is a matter of probability. You need to know that a certain event happens a certain % of the time. If you know this, you can win.
Here is the EA. Feel free to play around with it. And enclosed is a document that lists price movement and probabilities. If someone comes up with something better from this, can they please share it.
It comes down to the take profit and the retrace. Where do you stop it and hope for a retrace? If you wait a long time, the probability of a retrace increases and but your winrate decreases.
I think maybe a better strategy might be to open many orders and keep track of them somehow. Many orders that buy/sell. You are always opening orders and closing them.
This strategy will only be profitable if the profit that you make on the orders that you are closing outweigh the open orders.
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does this function on the same MA cross principle to drive it? Can you put user inputs for those period averages so it can be adapted to different TF?
one more idea worth exploring..weighting the lots sizes so that the opposing position is incrementally definable reduced. you know what I mean? either that or actully using the stop loss to reduce down side carrying...could/would you code these ideas today?
let's not overlook the fact of what happens on this stragety when the TP is reduced to 10 (see attached report) it DOES indeed carry the equity up with it even if it gets streached out a bit...when it closes and all is said and done it's still more than doubled it's money..with some damage control I think it could be even better.
Now before you think I'm selling something reason thru this with me...
The trouble here is that this system is not fully developed. Even so with it hedging it's positions 100% (the opposing trades) it's still increasing it's equity! I think this is on to something if someone who codes has the willingness to stick to it enough to follow thru with it's development. I see alot of EA ideas here get just enough attention and development to see where they are flawed and then they get abandoned. The power of developing a system is to go deeper with tweaking it once the flaws are uncovered don't you agree? If we have a clear view of where this is failing then we have the clear view of where we can stop the bleeding. What does it tell you when the system hedges it's positions 100% with opposing positions? Doesn't have much confidence in it's signal eh? Well I think there is good evidence to have confidence in the MA Cross signal and allow it to manifest on the bottom line alot more than with 100% hedging.
If you have extra time and don't think it would split your focus I would like your opinions on this...
Ask!
looking at this report
http://www.forex-tsd.com/attachments...m?d=1150405516
it seems to be driving the equity up infront it rather than carrying it behind.
tell me which of these to strategies do you think could be made most profitable?
http://www.forex-tsd.com/attachments...4?d=1150405505