Open High Low Close Volume High Diff Low Diff
1.6686 1.6720 1.6539 1.6605 5374 0.0034 0.0147
1.6595 1.6599 1.6529 1.6548 5335 0.0004 0.0066
1.6531 1.6657 1.6480 1.6557 5114 0.0126 0.0051
1.6556 1.6584 1.6464 1.6507 5482 0.0028 0.0092

High Diff and Low Diff if the pip count from open to either the high or low.
I’m trying to find an excel formula for this.
I have a preset TP lets say 50 points I’m trying to figure out based on the four bars above what the probability is if I open a long of hitting that 50 point TP also if I open a short what the probability of hitting the 50 point TP the direction with the highest probability is the direction you open your position in
I can appreciate that on a bar by bar basis you have a 50/50 chance but based on just one other bar being in the equation that percentage must change.

Any tips, pointers, or big waving banners would be greatly appreciated

Cheers

Beno