Thread: Probability
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Old 01-01-2009, 12:08 PM
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Beno Beno is offline
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Thanks Walander and oR4z0r for the replies.

oR4z0r I know that the question is a lot larger than it seems but we have to start somewhere using baby steps.
I don't know how much money is in the FX market (couple of trillion dollars or more) but as the majority of us are retail traders using MT4 there will only be a fraction of that available to us so all I want is a system that give a slight advantage to the people who choose to use it. If the system is ever developed and works.

It’s a bit idealistic I know but an idea not shared is just a thought .



Here is a somthing I have been working on i figure it's a start. it might be wrong but it's a start

OHLC stands for the 4 elements displayed on a typical price bar:
• opening price;
• highest price;
• lowest price; and
• closing price.

Look at the historical data.
You look at each bar and calculate the how many points are from the Open to the High (Long) and the Open to the Low(Short).
From that I look for the highest probable Take Profit (TP) and the highest probable Stop Loss (SL) for both the potential Long and Short positions
The starting point for the TP and SL calculations is 50 points so the idea is to run a program to find the probability of the price reaching both the TP and SL if the probability is very high I am looking for the system to add a point to the starting point. Then continue to add a point until the probability reaches a predefined point e.g. 0.75
So if I open a position I know I should have a 75% chance of either my TP or SL being hit or whatever I choose
Formula:
n = number of trials this is the number of bars i.e. days trading data
k = number of successes to see if the TP is hit by the Long
n – k = number of failures for the Long hitting the TP
p = probability of success in one trial for the Long
q = 1 – p = probability of failure in one trial for the Long


The formula above should be performed for both the Long and Short side and both the TP and SL
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