Quote:
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Originally Posted by Learning_pips
Hi Stal,
Wanted to clarify a point out of the explaination that you gave a couple of days back about
the Reaction Swing and the Projected Reversal Date.
1.When you said about the centre of the cycle, wont we calculate a 60% buy window and be
long on the trade after the Reaction Swing ends and the current Bull run restarts.
2.For applying Mr.Crane's Reversal date projection technique of reverse and forward counts,
what is the most reliable time frame to do so. I mean I tried doing it in smaller time
frames but could not be very successful.
Thnks..your big fan..
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Helloo Learning pips,
You know what your questions does to me? it challenges me...really, it does..like digging
down the well of yourself..believe me guys, these questions are NOT easy, though
simple..neither is understanding market behaviour or ''tells'' for consistent
profitability..
So we go back to our monthly charts on the GBPUSD..remember last time, we talked about a
reversal date of 4 to 8 months from now, for the cable..in which , price would have reached
a high probability turning point from its downtrend to (A) an uptrend reversal or (B), a
sideways consolidation or range in which the market is not ready to reverse but would
continue trading in the same direction as the current trend.So price on cable has a maximum of 9 months to show a reversal, according to the Reversal Date technique.
We shouldnt mix the concept of the Reaction Swing and Projected Reversal Date with the 60%
buy/sell windows. The R.S is mainly used for TIME PROJECTIONS while the 60% buy/sell windows
are more useful in the realm of PRICE PROJECTIONS.Now look at BC, the Reaction Swing where
we got the centre of the circle in which the past can project the future..though price would
have triggered our centre of the Reaction Swing @ 1.8300..it made a turnaround at the 60%
window..where the red arrow was.. Except you got very deep pockets to withstand a $1300 pip
downward move with leverage,you would've been stopped out..It was at the 2nd try, where the
blue arrow was, that price cleanly triggered the buy stop at the centre of the Reaction
Swing, and rocketed up..
Another difference is the R.S/R.D are mainly used in PRICE RETRACEMENTS, while the BUY/SELL
WINDOWS, are mainly used PRICE TRENDS..Always understand the difference, like understanding
your reality..''where Am I At In The Present Moment Of Now?'' Where Am I In The Greater
Scheme Of The Universe?Am I in a full trend or a retracement/correction?
2 Actually, you can apply those TIME PROJECTION TECHNIQUES on any timeframe, whether 5min,
15min, hourly, or weekly,etc.. The major challenge is counting those bars or candlesticks,
for the lower the timeframes, the more Reaction Swings inherent in them, and the more you do
your counts.. Since John Crane is from the futures/commodities world, most of his strategies
are different, yet similar to those in the forex world. His brilliant book, ADVANCED SWING
TRADING'', is very helpful for swing and position traders..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mageroi
My studies have proven to me that flexible and liberal interpretation
of EWA coupled with precise Fibonacci proportions & extensions on Price much more accurate
and practicable than all the Time studies of Gann, Delta, MM etc...
From practice & observation of others (including the newsletters from Copan) Delta or MM are
pretty much based on loose, flexible timings.The theoretical assertiveness of Copan in his
tapes is impressive but his newsletters are nourished with incertitudes....
I have yet to find a Timing study more precise than Price to trade with despite all the hype
about Time. Time cycles dissapears at times......
Just my experience and choice I guess.
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Hmmm, Mageroi, you might be quite right there..though they still have their uses..Is Time
Projection a core strategy of Buffetology?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MB219TR
Dear Madam and Dear Sir,
My name is Mahir I am a investor in Turkey, I would to ask you a question if you permit.
According to the exchange rates, the £ exchange rate to the $ was 1,99 at the common years,
now it decreases to 1,49.
According to the exchange rates, the £ exchange rate to the € was 1,55 at the common years,
now it decreases to 1,17.
As we have in our owner equity, our capital is almost all in British Pounds. According to
the long-term finance management we have a loss of about 900.000 Dollar’s because of the
exchange course.
My question is what do you advice me to do. Should I change to Euro or will the Pound be
stable and will gain its unique power again.
I hope you are not suprised about this mail because there to many speculations and I really
do not now how to act thats why I need help for an advice from you.
I thank you in forward and hope for your reply.
Yours Sincerly,
MAHIR - MB219TR@YAHOO.COM |
Well, Mahir,
just dont overlook GOLD as an alternative asset class, that traders run to during periods of
market uncertainity.
OPEC ends Cairo meeting without new output cuts - Yahoo! News
Quote:
Originally Posted by danew13
trying to max my dollar exchange to gbp...i can wait...is it worth it?
some predict gbp will tank at 1.40 dol. opinion?
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Even lower, danew...Price on the cable have up to 9 months to prove it.
NOW,SUNDAY,our previous order is still on,.we put a sell stop on GBPUSD @ 1.5300..1st target
@ 1.5260...2nd target @ 1.5175..3rd target @ 1.5090..sl @ 50 pips away from entry..
[10:32:33 26/11/08] Stalion : we also put a buy stop on gu @ 1.5540...1st target @
1.5580..2nd target @ 1.5615
[10:33:04 26/11/08] Stalion : sl @ 40 pips away..
If you care to observe, both buy and sell stops are at the extreme end of the Thanksgiving
week range..so we call this THE MONTHOBAMA TECHNIQUE
