Quote:
Originally Posted by iGoR
Daily results: Hitrate 80%. Avg. profit/day +291pips
no compounding is envolved in these results.
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iGor,
Still analyzing the excel sheet you emailed me,will reply by email within today.
From your reply to Charon at post 952 of this thread and your results of 7284 pips after 25 trading days...the numbers I get are the following :
1-To trade a full lot you need a starting Equity of 160k usd.
2-With this starting Equity,no compounding,after 25 trading days,you would have gotten 7284 pips,1 lot basis,so ,lets approximate, 72k usd profit.
3-Let`s presume you keep having these results,and a trading year of 200 trading days,discounting for holidays,etc...this would give us a non compounded profit of 200/25*72k usd=576k usd.
4-576k usd yearly profit on a 160k usd Equity is a 360% ROE which is exceptional.
5-By looking at your chart the max cumulative drawdown,peak to bottom,was sustained days 12 and 13 with a loss of 1194 pips,on 1 lot basis this is approx 12k usd...so,your max cumulative CLOSED drawdown has been 12k/160k...around 7.5% of your initial Equity which is exceptional relative to point 4 above...Previous posts I have read on this thread make me think that the max OPEN drawdown was something around 18%,which is not bad either related to potential return.
Intriguing to say the least,so,I have several questions :
1-Are my numbers right?Did I miss anything (exceptional volatility situation we are experiencing may favour the system?)or do they reflect what you expect from your system long term?...Of course 25 trading days are not enough to generate a valid sample,but we have several hundred trades there..so...
2-If they are right...why don`t you compound them?
3-How did you estimate the initial Equity?I presume by using the 0.5 probability,but how did you reach the potential max cumulative drawdown that made you decide on the initial Equity level?
I understand,at a conceptual level,that trough your MM you are trying to transform a 50% hit rate per trade on a 80% winning days system,with a 23/19 approx edge created by the avwin/avloss ratio...like playing roulette ,black or red,no zero ,with winnings 20% higher than losses...BUT everything relies on the initial Equity assumption relative to intial position size.
Regards