Quote:
Originally Posted by mpower
I saw Zorro is making big claims again and decided to see what the big fuss is about.
I took the data Igor presented for the "Super Safe Q Pattern" We have a small sample of data. Just 13 trading days. But it looks like the claims of 2:1 win/loss ratio are far off...and the claims of 66.66% winning trades are off too. Perhaps that was deviation from the long term results. He says that he back-tested 2 years of data and I believe him--he is honest!
Here are results without the martingale progression MM:
Net result: -52 pips
Percent winning trades: 47.09%
Average winning trade:20pips
Average losing trade: -19 pips
Total trades: 172- 91 losers, 81 winners
5 winning days, 8 losing days
The only thing that made this system profitable was the MM. The super safe Q pattern does not have any predictability nature. It has 0 to do with technical analysis. It just relies on the fact that markets will not be indecisive forever and eventually a portion of the average daily range will be broken either to the upside or the downside. So 17 losing trades are VERY unlikely to occur. And even if it happens the way Igor has designed the MM you will not blow your account.
I have made the conclusions based on the information presented in this thread. I am intelligent enough to evaluate it based on what Igor presents here. He is honest and transparent. Puts enourmous amount of effort into what he does. Consistently adapts his systems to withstand the challenges of a changing market.
Finally, this not a personal attack, but looking at data from a different perspective.
Enjoy the weekend everyone!!!!
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Mpower,
First of all thanks for your contribution.
To help you out a bit with the calculations you made:
I don't know how you calculated this or based on what rules or based on what period.
With the rules of the Super-Safe_Q-patern system I do not claim anymore that we have a 66% hitrate. The hitrate is precisly 50%.
The difference between your avg. win/loss ratio and mine is when one would calculate a trade with or without the use of the MM plan (regardless of how many contracts that one would use on a partical trade).
The daily hitrate is 81% winning days (Over the last 16 trading days since we use the Super-Safe_Q-patern --13 winning and 3 losing).
There are indeed many ways to look at data profits drawdowns all depending what the criteria is that one is using.
But I think that we both agree that the results over these 16 days speak for themselves.
And the fact that the results of the S-S_Q system (hitrate and avg.win/loss ratio) no longer depend on trend or consolidation we know that this system will make money till the end of time.
A bit sad because here stops my quest and search for the ultimate system.
As you say it has nothing to do with TA and of course nothing with any FA.
I said in the room last week to the members that when I look to all the calcaultions I made on the SS-Q system it is a
garanteed money making machine but it is a bit sad to see that it has nothing to do with learning how to trade or how to capture the market conditions. It is purely based on statistics and stacking up the odds in our favour. But that is emmidiatly also the key element why we are no longer under the infleunce of trend or consolidation.
It is a choise that one needs to make. Or
learning how to trade but accept that with all the TA one has that it is an endless struggle between profit or loss in trend or consolidation.
Or accepting to execute signals
without knowing anything about the markets itself or its dynamics but garanteed making money with it regardless of trend or consolidation.
I descided at this point in my life to go for the 2nd option but in my hart I will always stay a technical analist. And the beauty of the system is that it also leaves a lot of room for the one that wants to trade in a discretionay way. As I have proofed last week with my personal results and also some other members in the room who made more profit then the system itself.
Friendly regards and nice weekend to you to...iGoR