the source of info:PoltekFX Analytics » Blog Archive » Review of FOREX 16.04.08
USD

American currency is still traded in the sideward trend, but taking into account the great importance of today's data as well as strong state of consolidation, we can expect sharp change in prices towards both a decline in the dollar and its growth.
The signals to decline in USD are strengthening pair of EUR | USD to the absolute maximums as well as updating maximums of oil futures, which are now traded in the region of $ 113 per barrel.
The signal to the strengthening dollar is the fact that the pair has not been able to form the triangle at H4 yet.
As most of analysts expect, the dollar is likely to continue decline. In this case, the most prospective pair for buying will be EUR | USD, which is expected to grow to 1.62 marks as well as a pair of GBP | USD which is suitable to the level of strong support 1.9575.
Today the attention should be paid to CPI ex food & energy as well as Consumer Price Index.
If inflationary pressures show growth, the monetary authorities of the United States will be significantly limited in further reducing of interest rates that in the medium term should support the American currency.
The inflation data apart, we should pay attention to Housing Starts and Building Permits.
These indicators show how construction sector copes with the crisis mortgage, which has been suffered from the mortgage crisis. If the construction shows growth for a few months, then it will be a good signal for the coming completion of the crisis. Market could not apprehend single growth of indicators because of their strong decline.


GBP

GBP | USD is approaching to the area of closing five-year cycle (end of 2006) located in the area of 1.9575. It is expected that there will be fixation of some positions opened for the sale of GBP and the pair will make rebound upwards.
In the case of turnout signs, it is recommended to open up long positions with intermediate target in the region of 1.9720 and make stop loss below 1.9550.
Among the news about British economy which will be published today, unemployment should be pointed out, however taking into account issue of an important bloc of statistics of the United States it is likely that it will not make any impact.


CAD

USD | CAD fell sharply in the beginning of European session. If the decline continues, the price will be on very attractive levels, making use of which is recommended after the completion of USD decline impulse, which is expected to lower in the nearest 2 days.
Turnout of the pair can happen in the area of 1.0015 (closing January and the level of 50% of the growth impulse), or in an area of 0.9925 (closure of a three-year cycle), but, in any case, the couple is directed towards the growth and each time of correction opening of long positions is recommended.
Monetary authorities of Canada started lowering the interest rate, following the United States, but unlike America in Canada inflation is at an acceptable level, which will let resumption of lowering rates for several years.
Before the opening positions to buy the pair, it is recommended to wait until EUR | USD stabilizes in the region of 1.62 as the lowering of the dollar could lead to a decline in USD | CAD to even more attractive levels.