USD

First two weeks of this month USD demonstrated the relative stabilization. The prolonged decline in the dollar index has changed to sideward direction with the formation of a triangle, which in the nearest future can be realized that will cause resumption of decline in the American currency.
Statistics of the last week showed that the American economy continues to slowdown, but it is already not as fast as in previous months, so at the end of the second quarter we should expect final stabilization of the American economy and the consolidation of the dollar near the minimums, after which USD will start strengthening, and the strengthening of the cycle will last for several years.
On Monday in the United States data on retail sales will be published, but most likely it will not have a significant impact on the market as at present they are not key data. Weak growth indicator of sales is expected to 0.1% against 0.6% decline in the previous month. This week further decline in the currency is expected, which will cause even greater deviation from the economic grounded marks.




EUR

The European currency is traded with increase relative to American dollar. By the end of the week, EUR/USD could approach closer to 1.5850 strategic level of resistance, that is restraining further strengthening of the pair. In the case of break of this level, a pair will grow to 16th figure. Taking into account the formed triangle, the maximum of the pair can be recorded in the area of 1.6350 marks.
Inflationary data in the euro are still in the maximum points, while growth rates remain at a good level that allows the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates at 4% for a long time. It is expected that in the third quarter rising of inflation in Europe will decline, after which the rate will start falling and the rate of European currency will decline.
On Monday in the euro zone data on Industrial production will be published, which are expected to be at the level of the previous month. Data could cause an increase in EUR | USD, which will once again test the resistance level of 1.5850.



JPY

The Japanese currency is traded in expectation of the publication of the minutes of meeting of Bank of Japan, which last week, as expected, retained the interest rate at current 0.5% level.
It is expected that the market will ignore data protocols, as they will not be significantly different from the previous month’s protocols.
Technical analysis shows that the level of support, from which long positions should be opened on USD | JPY, is at 100.00 mark. The level of support is at mark of 97 yen per dollar.
The nearest resistance is at around 103 points. Targeted level is 111.80 (closure of a second three-year cycle).

PoltekFX Analytics » Blog Archive » Review of FOREX 14.04.2008