Originally Posted by Pabloreg

About martingale... i remember one nice post of Bob:

"Well, there is no 100% certainty. We both know there is no such thing. I have been studying the Martingale system on and off for a year. If you read my posts you know I clearly recognize the death trade. Its not avoiding it, it is managing it. Managing the Martingale runs against 90% of the prevailing opinions of the day. You dont use stop loss, you dont use fundamentals, techinical analysis is of little use even though we have to use an indicator to start the trade. It is not based on anything the ebooks or courses taught in the world, it is based on one simple fact, the market moves up and down and you can stack the odds in your favor using this action. That is what all currency trading is, using some method that stacks the odds in your favor and you pull the trigger. The martingale uses normal market movement and puts it in your favor. The whole Fibonocci method of trading is based on retracements. If the market moves X number of pips it will retrace a certain percentage back. Pivot point method is: the market moves to a certain resistance or support point and bounces back. Stochastics method when price goes to oversold or overbought look for the retracement or change of direction. News trading, if the news is above predictions look for this many buy pips, if it is below expectations look for sell pips. Every method uses this to some form. Here are the odds, practically every single day the Eur/USD moves 75-100 points unless there is a big news story or govt. action. I can play for 15 point profit and go 12 levels deep or 180 points without worrying about the death trade. The price can push close to 200+ points before I have to worry about wiping out my account. How many days last year did the Euro move over 200 points in one day?? Well there were 8 days and that is assuming it never retraced 15 pips during that run. So if I set up my numbers to accomodate up to 200 pips in a martingale trade I am looking at only 8 days out of the year of wiping out my account in the death trade. I like those odds much better than any other method. ...."