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take that spreadsheet to be completely mathematically accurate (as far as i know it is). now assume the market is completely mathematically random (so no previous event effects the current probability). this would mean that the spreadsheet shows the true outcome probability.
until you know the market depth you can not gauge accurately any probability, by market depth i mean - a stock is at 1p the chance of it going bust is quite likely as its closer to the low of the market than the high (which we don't know) but in forex we don't know how far a currency will go down. so to say that it has fallen 5000pips does not mean is has anymore chance of coming back up than it has of continuing to fall.
however, the market DOES remember and trend and have a bias. so by just placing a MA and trading in the same direction as it, increases the odds of you winning. you have to bear in mind that the market will out run and then return back to the MA, at which point the bias is against you.
looking for an indicator that shows probability you will do just as well to look at any oscillator. the RSI will show the probability of a trade going up or down depending on whether is it over bough or sold, in a flat market as there is no bias - BUT look what happens in a trend, it goes overbought and STAYS overbought. so it keeps telling you to sell even though there is an upwards bias. you can not apply probability to the market itself, but merely the trade.
hope this helps and you can understand.
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