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Originally Posted by omelette
Finally someone else seems has picked up on this - I have posted this very date several times but most think I have just had one brewskie too many!
But this has nothing to do with any particular system. I have three EA that I developed, each using different entry techniques, and they all show the same fall-off at this date. In addition, this is evident in almost every other 'winning' EA - the reality is that most EA's are no better than random enteries, meaning when commissions are taken into consideration, they are out-and-out losers. Finally, check this recent post of mine:
ElectricSavant's™ Challenge
- these are the results of an always-in-the-market martingaler, which will close all orders if the account d/d exceeds 5%. What it clearly shows is that after Sept-Oct 2006, 'abnormal' volatility of some sort suddenly kicked in. Abnormal in the sense that EA's that were extremely profitable continuously in the preceeding 7 years are no longer...
The real mystery is, what caused this, and why is this change so pronnounced and abrupt - one would expect a gradual build-up, but this does not happen... |
I also have a system that worked until October 2006, but unfortunately discovered it somewhere in the middle of 2007
What I found strange about it, however, is that it was only profitable when run on the historical data from the MT History Center, but not with Alpari M1 data, for instance. I thought at first that in October MetaQuotes Corp. changed the source of their historical data, and with the new data my EA didn't perform so well. Later, I remember coming across a post, explaining that MetaQuotes used combined data from several brokers. Assuming that they do that indeed, historical data cannot be the reason for the bad performance of the EA... can it?