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last attempt
Thunderbolts,
All you try to explain is beside the point,
Listen now and read my vision and don't try to push your vision on me.
New digital asked gagahlin to come to me to evaluate his EA. That is for a reason. Everyone knows me as a cocky or sometimes as an arrogant caracter.
But if it comes down to make analysis or to objectivly evaluate a system or results that I am correct and straight forworth. The language I use to do this is not always the softest or most diplomatic but over 12 years trading and forums I know that you need to kick peoples but before they want to listen.
So what I did here is make an conservative evaluation of an EA.
In that evaluation there was 1 very important question wich I will repeat again: What is the stoploss. If no stoploss where is the absolute "pull the plug" on the hedged floating positions.
The answer was NO stoploss only hedging the losses and no reply or remarks came on the pull the plug on the floating positions.
Then based on this information I say that people should stay away from this EA.
At some point you say that the EA will in the "worst" close the position 4-5 months after taken in.
Then I say or ask, what happens if that EA encounters a market reversall like the cable experienced in Nov 1980 or Febr. 1985 ?...(take a monthly chart on the cable to see what I mean).
2 answers possible:
Or the EA has indeed a "pull the plug" strategy that closes out floating orders after going to far from its initial price.
Or one is stuck with these floating positions for many many years. In the case of the example I gave it would be stuck 27 years with those positions.
I am experienced enough to know that this particular item gives a serious problem.
Or one does not implement a pull the plug rule and speculates on price "always" coming back so positions will be closed out with profit.
If one has "normall" market conditions this will reflect in a nice equity curve.
Or one implements a pull the plug rule to prevent the EA taking in endless hedging positions and that closes floating hedged postions after a serious reversall but that will have as effect that the hit rate will drop dramaticly. And that will also reflect in far worse results.
So everything you say about 3.5 years and following this system for 2-3 months etc is beside the point. The question and problem stays when a major market reversall happens like discribed.
If the answer would be: the chance that this would happen is so small that one can neglect this problem then my aswer is that this is an EA for gamblers who desperatly want to make money but not for traders that want to eliminate serious problems.
And I know very well that a hedged position means that if 1 position is losing 100 pips that the other one is winning 100 pips. But they take in account balance.
If it is so obvious why not close a losing position in the first place ?...
Nope because the rules of the EA speculate on the fact that price will come back after 4-5 months.
My remark is what happens if price DOES NOT come back ?....
If the answer would be indeed in this case one can get stuck for several years with floating positions then my answer or evaluation is NO to this EA.
One more example: if you build a car and you will need to go to a technical control to see if you can get the car on the road.
They ask you where is the hand break ?..
You can answer them: I don't have a hand break BUT I have very good carbon breaks and I have very good tieres and a very good horn to warn people and very strong lights to flash to people and I can break even with a parachute etc etc...
Their answer will be NO. A car needs a hand break.
So does a system. It needs a stoploss or a definitive pull the plug rule.
If you say no because this an outside the box strategy then it should stay outside the box and not sold to a broad public that would not be awere of this problem.
Even you who follows this EA doesn't want to listen to the problem I discribe. Why because you concentrate on the money it can make.
As an evaluator I am concentrated on the problems it can cause.
regards...iGoR
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Succes comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
To avoid a lot of false trades ask yourself the question:...Am I desperatly looking for a trend because I want to trade...or am I taking a trade because the trend is there...(iGoR)
Last edited by iGoR; 01-01-2008 at 04:03 PM.
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