View Single Post
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 12-08-2007, 02:15 PM
zupcon's Avatar
zupcon zupcon is online now
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Malta
Posts: 201
zupcon is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrM View Post
I would like to start a thread where we could dicuss econometrics, non-linear dynamics and chaos theory. There's a lot of info on wikipedia for the uninitiated, but I would appreciate feedback from people with a good background in these fields. I have a Master in economics myself and I only do statistical program trading and I've started playing with Matlab recently (trying to be Jim Simmons :-).

So here's my way of looking at the trading game: instead of trying to find indicators or constructing custom indicators that try to predict the future as accurately as possible on the given timeseries (like EUR/USD, 30min or so), why not try to find the ideal timeseries to trade for a simple trading system?

I guess the perfect one would be:
-A stationary process?
-with a very high Hurst exponent?
-presence of a strange attractor?
-autocorrelation in the log-returns?

And then we could just apply a very simple trendfollowing system. But because all instruments are different on all timeframes, we would need to construct a statistics application for MQL4 (or matlab) that automatically scans all timeframes of all pairs and only selects the best ones to trade for our trendfollowing system.

what do you think?
Looking at this simplistically, I think that in general, diversification across different time frames might just be as least as good a solution, as trying to identify a single optimum time frame.
Reply With Quote