Hey - you're thinking way too much now. Currency trading is far too simple than this. People don't become casualties in this biz b/c they don't and/or can't get the entries/indicators/trends/etc. right.
It's ALL discipline. (Oh, how many threads are on this subject in any given forum? Next to none!)
I like indicators. Most good ones can get you good entries/exits w/o even looking at the price. However, it's the mind stuff that gets me when I do get into trouble. Has NEVER been anything else. We spend WAY too much time feeding our addictions looking at charts, indicators, and past data. We pinpoint where we
would've, could've, and should've gotten into trades when really
it's only about trading live and from the right side of the chart.
My piece of advice to you would be to throw a MACD and perhaps 2 MA's onto a chart, be disciplined, use stop losses that have a purpose, use take profit areas that have a purpose,
and do the same thing every single time you place a trade.
I say this not b/c I found this out on some silly website like Newbie Forex Factory but out of trading for a living, making lots of mistakes, and being successful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrM
I would like to start a thread where we could dicuss econometrics, non-linear dynamics and chaos theory. There's a lot of info on wikipedia for the uninitiated, but I would appreciate feedback from people with a good background in these fields. I have a Master in economics myself and I only do statistical program trading and I've started playing with Matlab recently (trying to be Jim Simmons :-).
So here's my way of looking at the trading game: instead of trying to find indicators or constructing custom indicators that try to predict the future as accurately as possible on the given timeseries (like EUR/USD, 30min or so), why not try to find the ideal timeseries to trade for a simple trading system?
I guess the perfect one would be:
-A stationary process?
-with a very high Hurst exponent?
-presence of a strange attractor?
-autocorrelation in the log-returns?
And then we could just apply a very simple trendfollowing system. But because all instruments are different on all timeframes, we would need to construct a statistics application for MQL4 (or matlab) that automatically scans all timeframes of all pairs and only selects the best ones to trade for our trendfollowing system.
what do you think?
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