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Old 11-22-2007, 09:05 AM
iGoR iGoR is offline
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I would like to make an evaluation of this EA and system and realy stick to facts without any personal or emotional attacks what so ever to the author of this system.

1) The author of this system claims that this system does not make any losing trades. IF it is used without any stoploss like he is using it ( see posting #2 above)

2) The author of this system says that he makes very nice profits and that with a strategy of trading between 10-12 pairs ( see posting #2 above).

If one takes a look to the monthly chart of ONLY 1 pair. The GBP/USD. And aspecially to a NO stoploss strategy.

Those who know the rules of this system can easely spot that in Nov. 1980 the system was in a full long mode and would have triggered only long trades. After Nov 1980 that index dropped 14.000pips. So without a stoploss that would have resulted in a total burning of the account.

In Febr.1985 the system would have been in a full short mode and would have triggered only short trades. After Febr. 1985 the system changed into a bull market and went up more then 9.000pips and without stoploss would have resulted in 9.000pips loss or a compleet burning of the account.

In Jan 1991 the system would have been in a full long mode and trigger only long trades. After that the cable drops + 3000 to the downside. Wich would result again in a total account burn.

The same for Aug 1992 and some more periods that are not that outspoken but would have the same result on the account.

One can now say: Those burnings of the account are many years ago.
But each particular pair of the 10-12 pairs that are traded have exact same examples and that can be more recent and that would lead to a total burning of the account.

As long as one does not encounter a strong reversall like the ones that are mensioned then the risk stays pretty small and the chance that the price will come back sooner or later to its initial entry point is realistic.

But the author himself says that at somepoint this year (july) he encountered a drawdown of 65%. He is pointing out to the rectracemets on the daily charts over that period.
But if one looks to the monthly charts (wich are taken in calculation for the system) one can hardly see any retracement over that period.
But one can spot a lot of far bigger retracements over other periods. So if the month of july of this year leaded to a 65% drawdown, one can only conclude that in retracements that one can realy see on monthly charts, that the accounts would be burned in many cases.


If one is speculating on the fact that without these retracements one can make nice profits but neglect the fact that if one would encounter a big retracement period that he could burn his account, then that is more an aproach of a gambler then of a trader ( wich is the background of the author: professional gambling in casinos--wich he stated himself).
It is a bit of an all or nothing system. With the only difference that if this system is traded long enough the nothing will happen with 100% certainty if used without a stoploss as the author of this system is strongely sujesting.
AND the results of this system used WITH a stoploss have been prooven by many users of this EA. The results were: a very poor hitrate and a gradualy descent of the account till margin calls showed up.
This fact must be well known by the author of this system because that is the reason why he strongly sujests to trade without stoplosses.

regards..iGoR
__________________
Succes comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
To avoid a lot of false trades ask yourself the question:...Am I desperatly looking for a trend because I want to trade...or am I taking a trade because the trend is there...(iGoR)

Last edited by iGoR; 11-22-2007 at 11:57 AM.