Daily Currency report for Monday September 10 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 10 15:00 Consumer Credit Jul $8.0B $9.5B $13.2B
Sep 11 08:30 Trade Balance Jul -$58.0 -$59.0B -$58.1B
Sep 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/07 NA NA -3972K
Sep 13 08:30 Initial Claims 09/08 325K 330K 318K
Sep 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Aug -$100.0B -$85.0B -$64.7B
Sep 14 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$192.0B -$190.0B -$192.6B
Sep 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA NA 0.0%
Sep 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA NA 0.2%
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales Aug 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.0% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 14 09:15 Industrial Production Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Sep 14 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 82.1% 82.0% 81.9%
Sep 14 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 14 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep 83.0 83.5 83.4





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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3550

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Powering up to 1.3800 and just 60 pips shy of the all-time high at 1.3860, the euro "should" have another bash at taking 1.3900 this week. If we do manage this, the next stop is probably 1.4100. Remain bullish and look to buy dips after a clear G7 entry signal, but keep stops tight and be nimble with profit-taking. As we approach these extreme levels, volatile swings in both directions are possible and even likely. 1.3550 and 1.3350 are now very key support areas and whilst above here, expect continued upside probing. Below 1.3550 means a medium term top might just be in place and momentum should remain bearish for some time.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3860

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: