Originally Posted by jimven

Well, I don't quite agree with the first post either. If the forex were completely random, no one could could make a living at the forex, regularly making profits that exceed their losses. The spread would kill the "edge."

But the forex doesn't work that way. It's not completely random. You can absolutely count on the fact that sooner or later a currency pair will trend either up or down.

One way to beat the forex is to randomly take a position (buy or sell) and wait for the next trend to develop. Even better, try to detect the beginning of a trend and make your move. If it then goes the wrong way, close the position (you could use a stop loss, a manual trade command, or program logic in an Expert Advisor). Your objective is to limit your losses.

If it goes the right way, hang in there until the trend is over. The objective is to maximize your profits.

This "trend following" strategy will work if you can:

1. Detect when there is no trend. In that case, don't trade. You need to know when the price is ranging horizontally on your chart.

2. Detect when the price breaks out of it's ranging, hopefully starting a trend.

3. Detect if the price is going "the wrong way" for your position.

4. Know when the trend is over (it starts to reverse).

If you can figure out how to do the above four things, you have a profitable strategy. I believe I have done this, but I am still testing. So far, so good.