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Originally Posted by sam1
If it were that easy... no one will pay a monthly subscription fee for Freedomrocks, forexforsmarties, forex-assistant. Hope someone can point me to the right web site to get the right computation.
Atonix, If its not too much to ask. Can you post the formula here? Spliting ratios between pairs is easy, but what I like to know is how they add the correlation coefficient ratio to their computation and what (time) period do they use.
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Alright, here I go.
Yes, it is that easy, and people pay for it. I'm going to break something to you: they don't factor in any correlation. There's no reason. Let's back up to see what they are attempting to do, what the correlation is for, then how it could be done easier (and save the subscription). How do I know so much about this? I'm a math junkie, and spent a while evaluating these systems (figuring out exactly what they did). Needless to say, after my trial expired, I never began to look back.
FreedomRocks (and simular ones) are performing carry trades to take advantage of positive swap. Easy enough. They do this by trading low-volitility pairs. Unfortunately for anyone who doesn't pay attention, they aren't hedging
anything. Let's take the USD/CHF and EUR/USD (a popular cross). They are buying and selling the
exact same amount of dollars. They even tell you this. Making this super simple, they are buying $1 (and selling the equal amount in CHF), and then selling $1 (and buying the equal amount in EUR). This equals (exactly):
($1 in EUR)/($1 in CHF)
Which is (supprise!) EUR/CHF, a pair that your broker should have. Wait, wait, wait.. why would they buy and sell two different pairs instead of just buying EUR/CHF? I'm not exactly sure, I think it's to maintain the illusion that you are hedged. Well then, what are you doing?
You're trading a very stable pair. Check out a EUR/CHF graph.
This is what the correlation refers to: how stable the cross-pair is. The EUR and CHF have a high correlation, so are pretty stable. Others aren't so stable (especially the Yen), but pay more.
So you're simply trading two pairs that are simular (due to very simular economic conditions). The higher the correlation, the higher the volitility, and higher the risk (but generally higher the reward). You generally trade multiple pairs to put your eggs in several baskets, because even these "stable" pairs can change.
Want to know another secret? The correlations they list are optimal. Check out
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/currencyCor...s/heatmap.html. First notice that the CHF is fairly well correlated to the EUR, but if you look closely, the 1 year correlation (this system is long term, right?) is -0.71. 6 month is -0.76. 1 month is -0.85. This isn't even
close to what they claim. What's the value in any correlation then?
Stability. High absolute correlations means the pairs react very simularly, so are good for lower risk carry trades.
Ok, this should give you enough info to start looking into this and verifying everything I've said yourself. These guys run a pretty good chop-shop of a system. Need your magic amounts of each currency? Just buy the resultant cross-pair in the amount you want. I'd suggest that you buy several different, low volitility pairs.
I'm releasing a technique soon that takes these principals and uses them
only in profitable conditions and diversely to manage risk effectively. And without the $100+/month rip-off. Oh, and if after reading this you don't believe me, I have the formula FreedomRocks uses to calculate lots.