[quote=Malcik]Great, this thread is not dead
Sorry to interrupt you guys but I'd like to get part of our discussion back to the methodology.
What are your opinions on the three systems -- Vanessa, Tlatomi and Fozzy -- as far as their robustness goes? I have a little aversion against the 'special' indicators that have been created for MT4 exclusively for the sole reason that MT4 is a free piece of software and therefore anyone can afford to use it.
As Simba knows, I'm very afraid of overfitting and using fancy indicators with a dozen of settings parameters. Overfitting is like a nightmare to me. The worst thing I can imagine is that I find a system suitable for me, do a backtest on it, become very confident with it. Then I'll start trading it live, and that minute it will just turn around and start losing money. I will have a strong discipline because of the confidence gained through the backtest and therefore won't stop trading, and eventually lose my account.
That's why I've gone through some kind of a mental transition that makes me comfortable only when using the very basic indicators. I could use a more complicated tool only if I understood the science behind it very well -- like for example digital filters and non-lagging indicators (but unfortunately I don't understand it yet).
The three systems mentioned in this thread either use special indicators or they use the basic ones but too many of those. I have doubts about its robustness and endurance. On the other hand, Woodie's CCI to which I've dedicated a few hours of studying in past days looks a lot simpler and more robust (it works just everywhere and has been traded for more than 30 years). The patterns have underlying explanations of what they mean and why it makes them profitable. And plus, they are discretionary which makes them more durable because they can't be automated. They are also discretionary in an easy way that is understandable and tradable for a beginner as well, and it should be a good start for training his market perception.
Cementman, please don't take this as a critique... I just want to know your opinions and arguments on this issue and participate in a productive discussion
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Just check by testing if the robustness you require is the adequate one..
No system is perfectly robust,if it were ,its robustness will feedback into the loop destroying previous robustness and changing the system`s results making it imperfect.
cementman hinted at what you need,just choose a system ,test it and STICK with it..trading results are derived from behaviour not from systems,behaviour is derived from beliefs..and if these comprise a need for absolute safety,they will impair your trading..and don`t forget the fundamentals
Regards